Research

Economic

Research Programme 2008/9

Regional Economic Forecasting Panel

The Panel's long-term forecast anticipates the performance of the Northwest economy over the next twenty years, the short-term forecast looks at the next 3 years. To understand how the regional economy will perform in the future the panel examines its recent past, which has seen substantial changes. Detailed analysis is made of key productivity drivers in the Northwest relative to the UK and other regions, and a consensus view for future economic performance is provided.

Public Procurement

It is widely recognised that public expenditure on a regional, sub-regional and local authority level forms a key part of sustaining local economies and communities across the UK. Public Expenditure statistics published by HM Treasury indicated that in 2003/4 delivery of public services in the Northwest region accounted for nearly £41bn of revenue.

The objective of this research is to identify the contribution public procurement makes within the region. This study will identify the current pattern of procurement associated with public expenditure within the region and to investigate its impacts upon supply chains within the region.

Two key elements of this research comprises of:

The assessment of the impacts of public expenditure on the regional economy.
Efficiency of procurement processes across the public sector

Aim: To identify the level and current pattern of public procurement within the region.

Places

Place matters. Thinking spatially about the regional economy is the key to developing new ideas and ways of connecting both at the local and global scale. This region is very diverse geographically, socially and environmentally, for example Cumbria is a predominantly rural sub-region which has seen a gradual decline in GVA. Greater Manchester in contrast is home to the regions largest city, is predominantly urban and contributes 40% of regional GVA.

Understanding ‘place’ is important but it is apparent that it is a difficult concept with varied meanings. Broadly, these can be grouped around;

‘place’ as a geographical concept, a defined area or locality that has character, identity and meaning
‘place’ as a sociological concept, a unique point of intersection of points in a network of social relations
‘place’ as an economic concept, a ‘market place’.

What is common to each of these concepts, however, is that ‘place’ is seen as a dynamic rather than a static concept. A space becomes a ‘place’ not because it is constructed, but because it develops an accumulation of meanings for people that change over time. It is based on individual and community relationships that link outwardly into the wider world. And economic markets are, by definition, dynamic.

Aim: To develop a methodology for a set of high quality products which illustrate and identify the places. Their uniqueness, strengths, weaknesses alongside any growth potential and futures.

Northwest Comparative Advantage

Following on from the European Benchmarking work conducted in the 07/08 research programme, the purpose of this project is to identify those areas in Europe which have grown significantly over the period 1996 – 2006. From this, an assessment will be conducted to understand how this significant growth has been achieved and how, if at all, any of these attributes can be applied to the Northwest economy.

Aim: To identify key attributes of an area demonstrating significant growth in order to see whether these same attributes can be applied to the Northwest region.

Preston Potential

Preston as a place is not achieving the success it is capable of given proximity to the corridor and their characteristics. This study will explore the economic potential of Preston especially, as the third major city within the context of identifying and assessing its potential.

Aim: Explore the economic potential of Preston as the ‘third major city’

Research Programme 2007/8

European Benchmarking for the Northwest

The purpose of this project is to examine the performance of the North West economy and its sub-regions in a European context. The key aims are to:

provide an assessment of the economic performance of the North West and its five sub-regions, including comparisons with suitable regional economies across Europe
explain why growth rates in the North West have been better/worse than elsewhere
identify what lessons can be learned from European comparator areas
provide an assessment of the opportunities and threats posed by the wider global economy

This project is focused on providing an evidence-base on economic growth in the North West and other European regions/sub regions. It is not concerned with commenting on or assessing economic development policy in the North West or any of its sub regions. Rather, the focus is on identifying performance drivers and policy priorities in comparable areas across Europe, and using these to inform development in the North West.

Outputs
European Benchmarking Final Report
Annex A - Identifying Benchmarks in Europe
Annex B - Exploring Benchmarks for the Northwest
Annex C - Exploring Benchmarks for the Sub-Regions

Forecasting Forum

The economic baseline for the RES draws on a wide evidence base that focuses not only on regional performance but also sub-regional performance. It is essential that we as a regional body understand where the growth in the region is going to stem from. Through the forecasting forum, sub-regional partner’s growth predictions will be taken into account within one model allowing us to ascertain greater shared understanding of any sub-regional variation from the regional outlook.

Pocket Databank

The pocket databank is a Northwest regional profile consisting of regional, sub-regional and local authority statistics. Drawing on key economic indicators the databank is an invaluable source of information from which we are able to assess the performance of business, productivity and labour market statistics.

Area Snapshots

Using a variety of economic indicators associated to each of the themed chapters in the RES, this piece of work describes the main attributes of each of the local authorities in the Northwest. This piece of work gives us an area snapshot of the threats and opportunities that reside in a particular area.

RES Monitoring Report: One Year On

One year on from the RES 2006 baseline report this report looks at the social, economic and environmental progress which has been made in the region. The report illustrates updates on an agreed range of indicators/impact measures for each RES factor and progress with milestones for each RES action. The report has been compiled by accessing relevant data sources and by each lead organisation providing information on action and implementation.

Foresighting

This study will be to produce a series of research papers or think pieces, looking at key areas of the RES and future policy development to stimulate debate and understanding of these issues to enhance the production of economic policy for the NWDA and Region.

There is a need to “future proof” regional economic policy and to ensure full awareness, and the ability to, respond to national policy and the implications for regional policy. Although the evidence base for the current RES is strong, there is now the need to develop beyond the where we are now, to what could we be in the future.

Outputs published in March 2008:-

Slides used in scenario evaluation and topic consultation workshops
Project Paper
The Delphi Process
Rural Economy
Visitor Economy
Enterprise
Productivity
ICT
Energy
Skills Demand and Skills Investment
Sustainable Communities
Demography

Aim: To “future proof” regional economic policy and broaden the understanding of topic areas and challenge/improve policy development.

Cheshire & Warrington Economic Alliance (CWEA) – Economic Assessment

This study will identify baseline economic trends within the sub-region to include analyses of output, income, productivity, employment, enterprise and skills and a consideration of relevant issues affecting infrastructure, transport, quality of life and land. The analysis will build on the findings of CWEA’s “Building on Success” state of the sub-region report, which was published in 2006. In particular, this study will address recent reductions in output (GVA per head) within the sub-region compared to national and regional averages and offer explanations for this. The Final Report is now available.

Aim: Identify performance of baseline economic trends for Cheshire & Warrington